{"id":923,"date":"2021-01-01T09:14:33","date_gmt":"2021-01-01T09:14:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/chinas-clean-energy-reset-a-new-decade-of-investments\/"},"modified":"2023-07-17T22:00:01","modified_gmt":"2023-07-17T22:00:01","slug":"chinas-clean-energy-reset-a-new-decade-of-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/zh-hans\/chinas-clean-energy-reset-a-new-decade-of-investments\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Clean Energy Reset \u2013 a New Decade of Investments"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s Updated Targets for Clean Energy is a major investment thematic for Energy-investors, ESG Implementers, and importantly for Inflation-watchers. The size and scale of China\u2019s top-down plans are immense, and on the ground, there is a whole ecosystem of investment activities for global investors to focus on.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>While more than 150 Paris Agreement signatories were scheduled to update their new energy\/carbon neutral plans by year-end 2020, it is the size and scale of China\u2019s updated plans that really matter to global investors.Amidst the topical discussions about the \u201cGreat Reset\u201d climate thematic, investors need to pay attention to what China is planning.<\/li>\n<li>China already has a globally dominant position in the renewables space, and their track record for investing and expanding power capacity is difficult to challenge. China\u2019s history of power capacity implementation suggests we must pay attention to their current plans to dramatically expand renewables.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Huatai\u2019s new 33-page thematic report, <strong><em>\u201cNew Energy Sector to Rise on the \u2018Great Reset\u2019\u201d<\/em><\/strong>, and its bottoms-up companion piece, <strong><em>\u201cEnergy Reform Accelerates: 2021 Power Equipment and New Energy Outlook\u201d<\/em><\/strong>, each by senior analyst Bill Huang and the Huatai Renewablesand Power Equipment team, combines a top-down and bottoms-up analysis of China\u2019s expanding NEV battery&amp; vehicle market, Solar\/Photovoltaic Cells, and Wind Generation markets. In our \u201cGreat Reset\u201d report, we also outline the growing New Energy ETF space in China with analysis performed by our head of quant research, Xiaoming Lin.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"details\">\n<li>Executive Summary Overview<\/li>\n<li>I. Quick Review \u2013China\u2019s size and scale in the renewables and total energy market \/ China\u2019s record-breaking power generation expansion over the past twenty years.<\/li>\n<li>II. China\u2019s Updated New Energy Plans \u2013Massive Expansion<\/li>\n<li>III. Why is China doing this and how will it be done?<\/li>\n<li>IV. New Energy Vehicles \u2013China Domestic market 40% of global market in 2022<\/li>\n<li>V. New Energy Batteries &amp; Materials \u2013Ecosystem Opportunity<\/li>\n<li>VI. Solar \u2013Dominant Global Market Share across the Photovoltaic chain<\/li>\n<li>VII. Wind Power \u2013Achieving Grid Parity in 2021, 50-60GW expansion per year<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>I. QUICK REVIEW\u2013CHINA\u2019S ENERGY SIZE AND SCALE; HISTORIC CAPACITY EXPANSION<\/h3>\n<p>China is not just the world\u2019s largest energy consumer, but also the globe\u2019s largest Energy producer.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The World\u2019s Largest Power Generation Producers, TWh, 2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-609 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image038.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"247\" height=\"439\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image038.png 247w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image038-169x300.png 169w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 247px) 100vw, 247px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>China is also the largest producer of renewable energy globally at nearly 3x the US<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-610 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image039.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"696\" height=\"509\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image039.png 696w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image039-300x219.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>In terms of production of Renewables, China leads globally in Solar &amp; Wind Capacity:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-611 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image040.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"265\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image040.png 780w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image040-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image040-768x261.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>And in Hydropower as well.<\/strong><br \/>\nCumulative Hydropower Capacity in 2019, gigawatts<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-612 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image041.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"380\" height=\"311\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image041.png 380w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image041-300x246.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 380px) 100vw, 380px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>While investors may be rightfully wary about any given country\u2019s energy and ecological commitments, China has a track record for aggressively expanding capacity to support its economy \u2013<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-613 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image042.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"498\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image042.png 781w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image042-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image042-768x490.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 781px) 100vw, 781px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Aside from its massive grid creation between 2000 and 2010, China has invested approximately $350 Billion in upgrading its power grid between 2015-2020 alone<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-614 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image043.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"555\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image043.png 555w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image043-300x214.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 555px) 100vw, 555px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>II. CHINA\u2019S UPDATED NEW ENERGY PLANS \u2013 MASSIVE EXPANSION<\/h3>\n<p>China announced in October 2020 that it plans for its carbon emissions to peak in 2030 with total non-fossil fuels becoming 25% of total energy consumed. This implies reducing carbon intensity by 65% using 2005 as a baseline. They further announced the goal to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060.<\/p>\n<p>Despite its investments to date in solar and wind power, on a current base of about 415 GWh of solar and wind capacity, achieving China\u2019s 2030 targets implies <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">China will have to invest in another 800 GW of capacity in the next 9 years<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-616 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image044.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"481\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image044.png 481w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image044-300x218.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>III. WHY IS CHINA DOING THIS AND HOW WILL IT BE DONE?<\/h3>\n<p>The rationale for these stated plans is important, and the potential impact of these goals are immense. For China, traditional energy supplies are not adequate to meet energy demand, and China\u2019s self sufficiency ratio is declining as it imports more oil and gas, most recently at growth rates of 9.5% YOY and 6.9% YOY, respectively. Overall, 85% of China\u2019s power needs are still reliant on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s degree of dependency for oil and gas is 40% of total, and against the background of a complex international situation and fierce energy competition, China is determined to massively increase its self sufficiency ratio.<\/p>\n<p>Given China\u2019s leadership in key business areas of new energy sectors, surely achieving these global reforms will also enhance China\u2019s international energy influence and business opportunities as well. Bill Huang notes that Europe and China signed the \u201cEU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment\u201d, the first foreign investment liberalization agreement that Europe has signed in more than ten years. With it, the EU indicated they may open up market access for power and new energy sectors which Chinese companies would like to target.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Batteries, Solar and Wind Capacity Expansions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Battery investment continues to accelerate and China has leading positions across an eco-system of companies for battery and battery material manufacturing. In solar, China\u2019s total on the ground capacity is expected to double within 5 years, with 2021 alone adding 50GW on a base of c.220GW. Given global industry market shares, China\u2019s PV companies in our universe have significant overseas expansion opportunities. And in wind, China announced a commitment in October 2020 to expand capacity annually by 50GWh through 2025, and then 60 GWh annually through 2030 (2020 Wind base of c. 210GW). Like solar, China is approaching grid parity this year, and offshore wind capacity is ramping.<\/p>\n<p><strong>China Wind Grid Parity<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-617 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image045.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"684\" height=\"583\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image045.png 684w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image045-300x256.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 684px) 100vw, 684px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>IV. NEW ENERGY VEHICLES \u2013 CHINA DOMESTIC MARKET 40% OF GLOBAL MARKET IN 2022<\/h3>\n<p>Sales of EVs in China came in at 1.36 million units in 2020 with a pure EV\/hybrid mix of 81%\/19%. Based on an industry target of 20% penetration of NEVs by 2025, Huatai estimates that will be at least 5.8 million NEV vehicles sold that year.<\/p>\n<p>According to Bill Huang\u2019s model, we expect the global EV market in 2022 to be 5.5 million units, with 39% of those units sold in China.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-619 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image046.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"779\" height=\"261\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image046.png 779w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image046-300x101.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image046-768x257.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 779px) 100vw, 779px\" \/><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-620 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image047.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image047.png 781w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image047-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image047-768x336.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 781px) 100vw, 781px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>V. NEW ENERGY BATTERIES &amp; MATERIALS \u2013 ECOSYSTEM OPPORTUNITY<\/h3>\n<p>Global battery shipment volume should expand the next 5 years from a base of 213GWh at a 57% CAGR or to c. 1400GW of shipments. One Chinese company is the world\u2019s largest maker of NEV batteries, and a South Korean company has the second largest share.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-621 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image048.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image048.png 780w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image048-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image048-768x418.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-622 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image049.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image049.png 780w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image049-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image049-768x294.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-623 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image050.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"496\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image050.png 780w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image050-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image050-768x488.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For Battery Materials in China, we see investment verticals in Lithium-Ion Materials, Separators, both Cathode &amp; Electrode Materials, and Electrolytes which are all experiencing increasing demand.<\/p>\n<h3>VI. SOLAR \u2013 CHINA COMPANIES HAVE A DOMINANT GLOBAL MARKET SHARE ACROSS THE PHOTOVOLTAIC CHAIN<\/h3>\n<p>The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) expects China\u2019s domestic installed capacity of solar cells (c. 240GW) to double by 2025. Production expansion of large-size silicon wafers, the rise of PERC+ and heterojunction cell technologies have promoted the increase in power generation efficiency and opened the era of grid parity connection of solar power which will be achieved in 2021. And driven by continued cost reductions across all segments of the industry chain, Huatai expects higher profitability for the PV industry. With government subsidies ending by next year, there is an installation rush in 2021.<\/p>\n<p><strong>China dominates the global market across all PV products an PV Equipment.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As of 2019 full year data, China PV suppliers had a market share of<br \/>\nSilicon Materials: 69%<br \/>\nSilicon Wafers: 93.7%<br \/>\nPV Cells: 77.7%<br \/>\nPV Modules: 69.2%<\/p>\n<p>Huatai expects PV Modules to be the biggest market battle in 2021. The top ten players have 70% of the industry\u2019s share. Modules based on large-size silicon wafers (c.f Tianjin Semiconductor) will be used to create next generation 500W modules. The market share of 166mn modules is rapidly increasing and we expect large -size products such as 182mm\/210mm modules to see market share gradually pick up in bids in 2021E.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-625 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image051.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"677\" height=\"369\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image051.png 677w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image051-300x164.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 677px) 100vw, 677px\" \/><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-626 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image052.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"634\" height=\"346\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image052.png 634w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image052-300x164.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 634px) 100vw, 634px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cPV + energy storage\u201d parity brings medium \u2013 to long-term development potential<\/strong>, energy storage the next growth driver. Huatai believes that \u201cPV + energy storage\u201d could overcome medium- to long-term development obstacles for new energy. With energy storage costs trending down, the 14th FYP period could in our view be a golden age for energy storage development. Our recommendations are value chain players Sungrow Power and Linyang Energy.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid alignnone wp-image-627 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image053.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"551\" srcset=\"https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image053.png 780w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image053-300x212.png 300w, https:\/\/htsc-us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/image053-768x543.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Impacting Economies, Materials, &#038; Key Global Growth Sectors<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":756,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>China\u2019s Clean Energy Reset \u2013 a New Decade of Investments | Huatai Securities (USA)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China\u2019s Updated Targets for Clean Energy is a major investment thematic for Energy-investors, ESG Implementers, and importantly for Inflation-watchers.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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